Choctaw, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

353
FXUS64 KOUN 251123
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Record heat likely Wednesday into Thursday with near-critical
  fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Strong winds possible behind a cold front on Friday.

- Cooler Friday into Saturday.

- Low chances for rain or an elevated storm Thursday night across
  far northern OK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

An upper ridge will continue to build and expand eastward across the
U.S. Southwest into the Southern Plains with southerly flow in our
lower-levels increasing our warming trend.  A shield of Cirrus
rotating around the upper ridge/high will keep skies cloudy through
this morning although expecting the dirty ridge to clean out by this
afternoon with clear skies & maximum sunshine.  Warm southerly
advection combined with maximum solar heating will result in rapid
heating with high temperatures this afternoon into the lower to mid
90s across most of our forecast area.  Southeast Oklahoma will see
the strongest moisture advection with near 60 degree dewpoints
keeping it "relatively" cooler in the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon. With these temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal, we`ll
likely either tie or break temperature records this afternoon.
Increasing moisture in our southerly flow will form a broad dryline
from western Oklahoma through the Panhandles.  Gusty south winds up
to 25 mph combined with hot and drier air will Elevate fire weather
conditions across the western edge of our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Increasing fire weather conditions and strong winds will be the
weather issues during the short term with additional hot
temperatures for Thursday.  A strong southerly low-level jet will
fire up Wednesday night/Thursday morning resulting in 30-40 mph wind
gusts by late morning mixing lasting well into the evening prior to
the arrival of a strong cold front.  Our surface isobaric pattern
tightens as well keeping south winds sustained at 20-25 mph.
Expecting the broad dryline to punch into our western CWA with lower
afternoon RH values extending into much of central Oklahoma which is
the eastward extent of the Near Critical fire danger risk.  Hot
again Thursday afternoon which could also tie or break temperatures
records.  Hot and more widespread lower RH values and windier
conditions will be increasing fire weather conditions as a Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect late Thursday morning into the
evening hours.  A weather system moving through the polar jet in
eastern Canada will be pushing a strong cold front across the U.S.
Great Plains & Upper Midwest regions and into northern Oklahoma by
late Thursday evening.  Behind & above the front a shortwave
disturbance in the mid-levels may track along the Kansas/Oklahoma
state lines bringing very low POPs across far northern Oklahoma
Thursday evening into early Friday morning.  Although weak but
instability in the mid-levels may be sufficient for an elevated
thunderstorm from this wave along our northern state line. The
strong cold front will continue pushing across our area through
Friday morning.

We will see gusty northerly winds behind the strong cold front
Friday and could see 45-55 mph gusts behind the front during the
morning hours.  Should this forecast trend continue could certainly
see at least a Wind Advisory Friday morning.  Did deviate from NBM
for the wind gusts during the latter half of Friday morning using a
more robust GFS based on the 925 mb post frontal winds.  Friday
afternoon remains windy with 40-45 mph gusts.  Still a fire danger
risk on Friday but will trim both risk areas (Near Critical &
Elevated) further west where the lowest RH`s will be.  Not seeing
any strong cooling behind this front with the surface high building
over the U.S. Great Plains & Upper Midwest regions.  However will
see temperatures return to seasonably normal with a cooler breezy
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Southerly winds make a return on Saturday and with one more day of
mild seasonably normal temperatures.  A low-level jet redevelops
both Saturday & Sunday nights resulting in breezy & gusty south
winds on Sunday & Monday.  Sunday will also be the start of a
warming trend with afternoon highs in the 80s.  The return of hot &
dry air and gusty winds over still dry ground vegetation will also
increase the fire weather danger across parts of our area on Sunday
& Monday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected and south winds will increase this
morning and become gusty. Low-level wind shear is expected to
develop across at least northern Oklahoma overnight tonight.

As a note: the AWOS at KDUA is reporting low ceilings, low
visibilities and occasionally reporting rain this morning. Other
sources (satellite, radar, weather cameras, neighboring
observations) suggest this is not representative weather and is
likely due to sensor issues and/or non-meteorological things
(such as spider webs). We are issuing the KDUA TAF as VFR based on
these other sources.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  65  92  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         93  61  95  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  62  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           94  61  99  42 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     91  64  94  46 /   0   0   0  30
Durant OK         87  64  87  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for OKZ004>031-033>040-044.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for TXZ083>088.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26